Airline Fuel Hedging is Risky Business

Airlines buy fuel hedges in an effort to balance current cost of fuel against what they think the price of fuel will be in the future. That's an excellent strategy when the price of fuel goes up.  Southwest Airlines and Alaska Airlines are both famous for doing this very well.  In a number of fiscal quarters SWA has claimed that the only reason they made money was that they had a competitive advantage in the price of fuel because they hedged well.

Typically airlines hedge by buying forward contracts on kerosene, or home heating oil because Jet fuel isn't actually a traded commodity.  Kerosene however moves at about the same price levels as Jet Fuel.

Now, while aviation fuel remains high, the price for crude oil is falling.  United, Northwest and Delta are feeling the pinch and stand to lose money on their hedges.   Hurricane Ike took a number of refineries off line so supply is keeping the price of Jet A high even while the kerosene or heating oil the airlines used for hedges falls. 

clipped from seattletimes.nwsource.com By JOSHUA FREED The Associated Press MINNEAPOLIS — Airline bets that oil prices would rise looked like a no-brainer this summer. But with oil prices falling, those hedges against rising fuel costs are getting expensive. United Airlines said today it is on track to lose $544 million on fuel hedges this quarter. That included $72 million in realized losses and another $472 million in unrealized losses. Those positions forced United to put $400 million into restricted cash for the parties on the other side of its oil price bets. Other airlines have not disclosed their hedging losses or gains for the third quarter, but it is likely that United was not alone in underestimating oil's dramatic fall. Oil settled at $97.16 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange today, down from a July peak of $147. Northwest Airlines said in July that its hedges require it to pay if crude falls below $108. Its hedge for 10 percent of its fuel for next year requires it to pay if crude falls below $112. Of course, rallying oil prices could make those hedges look smart again. And — importantly — even if United loses money on fuel hedges, it will save money because the fuel itself is cheaper. JPMorgan analyst Jamie Baker wrote in a note that oil's fall over the space of just one week will save airlines $3 billion. Fuel has become the biggest expense at the big airlines. United's 2007 fuel bill was $5 billion, which was reduced slightly by an $83 million hedging gain. "Yes, hedgers are under water on their hedges, but they are seeing some relief on the cash market side. That's how it should work," said Jonathan Leak, a senior vice president for risk management at World Fuel Services, which puts together fuel-hedging programs for airlines. However, fuel prices have not fallen as much as crude in the short run because refiners are at capacity. Hurricane Ike made that worse because 12 of the 14 jet fuel refineries in its path are still shut down because the power is out, Leak said. Those 14 refineries make 19 percent of the nation's jet fuel.

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